In December, e‒forecasting.com's NYC HIL (hotel industry leading indicator) advanced 0.1% to 139.6 from 139.4 in November. The NYC HIL is set equal to 100 in 2010.
Based on NYC’s Hotel Industry Leading (HIL), the probability of an upcoming recession for the New York City hotel market registered a reading of 7.9% in December of 2015, which is slightly higher than the previous month’s risk reading of 7.3%.
“The New York City hotel market is forecast to lose ground on rates this year, with an 8.2% decrease in oADR (online average daily rate). With slashed rates, we forecast major decreases in per room profit, with the hardest hit quarter this year set to be the fourth quarter with a 12.6% decrease year over year. Using our forecasts and overall economic environment picture as painted in our report, hoteliers in the city need to properly plan for this upcoming reality for their properties and adjust their rate plans and marketing strategies accordingly,” commented Maria Sogard, CEO of e-forecasting.com.
In addition to reporting on forecasts of the hotel metrics of occupancy, ADR and RevPAR, the monthly Hotel Market Forecasts also provide in depth analysis of the economic environment and how it relates to the forecast for each hotel market. This additional analysis includes country-wide and market level hotel industry pulse (HIP) and hotel industry leading indicator (HIL) monthly readings, probabilities of an upcoming recession in the hotel industry, the country's monthly GDP, a foreign travel leading indicator specific to each market, labor market conditions, inflation, exchange and interest rates, energy prices and special events. The report also covers the key metrics of online average daily rate (oADR), and unit profit forecasts per room. Each Monthly Hotel Forecast includes predictions for 24 months, 8 quarters and three years out for each of the key hotel performance metrics. It is available on an annual subscription basis.
e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.
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