Market Report U.S.

April Online Room Rates Are Down 1.6% from a Year Ago

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April Online Room Rates Are Down 1.6% from a Year Ago

e-forecasting.com

Hotel room rates in the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations average $246.5 this April, down from $247.08 in March, according to hotel online room rates derived from real time global multi-provider database of reservations maintained by e−forecasting.com. The U.S. average online room rate (e−Room Rate ®)¹ - the world's best predictive analytic for info about now as compared to the past - and hoteliers' only tool for "predictive benchmarking ®", ranges among the top-25 destinations from a high of $393 to a low of $134 this April. Based on industry surveys, e−forecasting.com estimates that in 2018 about 75% of all reservations are made online via brand websites and travel agent merchant websites, compared with only one-fourth nine years ago.

US Hotel Analytics March/April 2018

On year-over-year basis, the U.S. average online room rate is now down (−1.6%), this April, from a year ago, which is higher than the previous month's year-over-year growth rate of (−2.0%). This April, the average online room rate in New York, despite a dip of (−5.7%) from last year, hit $393 a night, making the city the most expensive destination among the top-25 U.S. hotel markets.  Washington D.C. takes the second place now, in April, with an online room rate at $382, after a drop of (−9.7%) from a year ago. In Boston, the online room rate in April is now shrinking (−20.6%) from last year to $360 a night, ranking the city in the third place of the most expensive destinations in the United States.

Table - Top 25 US DestinationsAt the bottom of the list, the three least expensive, or most affordable, cities to visit this April are: Indianapolis hitting a monthly online room rate of $174 a night, after a (+0.8%) change from a year ago; New Orleans posts now an online room rate of $169, following a (−15.6%) change from last year; and lastly, the most affordable popular destination in the country is now Minneapolis with an online room rate of $134, after a nil change from a year ago. With a median online room rate of $223 amongst the top-25 most popular U.S. destinations, Miami is placed to be the country's average affordable city to visit this April.

Moving from data to Hotel Biz Analytics ®, e−forecasting.com's Smoothed Seasonally Adjusted (SSA)² predictive analytic, which measures the so called (underlying) trend in online room rates, posts $240.18 this April.  On a month-over-month basis - the hoteliers' predictive analytic for tracking what's now and not what's the past - "estimates the national trend in online room rate this April to have declined (−0.1%) from the previous month, which is the same percent change as in March", said Evangelos Simos, editor of predictive analytics databases and professor of economics at the University of New Hampshire.

Combining the demand-driven trend effect with the market-specific periodic effect, e-forecasting.com offers hoteliers unparalled predictive intelligence to optimize both what's now and what's next "predictive benchmarking ®". "Looking at the top-25 hotel destinations, the month-to-month percent change in the trend of online room rates in April ranges from a high of (+3.1%) in Las Vegas to a low of (−1.9%) in Salt Lake City. Amongst the top-25 destinations, the trend (SSM) in online monthly room rates is growing in 12 cities; and is falling or staying flat in 13 cities," Simos added.

"Looking at profitability, hoteliers' ultimate gauge for decision-making, profits per available room (e−ProfitPAR ®) are down (−4.2%) on a year-over-year basis in April", said Maria Sogard, CEO at e-forecasting.com. e−ProfitPAR is the result of changes in two predictive anaytics: the online revenue per available room, e−RevPAR ®; and e−forecasting.com's estimate of hotel unit (per room) cost, e−Unit Cost ®, derived from prices of all relative contributing inputs - including wages - which are mined in real time from hundreds of internet databases. "In our previous month's report, March 2018, year-over-year percent change in e−ProfitPAR posted a reading of (−4.6%). In a longer perspective last year, April 2017, year-over-year percent change in e−ProfitPAR posted a reading of (−6.5%). Using real time e−RevPAR for the top-25 U.S. destinations and market-centric e−Unit Cost index, year-over-year percent change in e−ProfitPAR range from a high of (+46.3%) in Las Vegas to a low of (−28.4%) in San Jose in April. Amongst the top-25 destinations, predictive analytics on e−ProfitPAR are up in 10 cities; they are down or are flat in 15 cities.

Graph - US Online hotel room rates

About e-forecasting.com www.e-forecasting.com

Founded in Durham, NH in 1994, e-forecasting.com is a predictive intelligence consulting firm offering to clients customized solutions for what’s next. For over 20 years, its hotel insights division has focused on hotel predictive analytics and forecasting products for the top destinations around the world to enhance its clients competitive advantage and improve their bottom line.

Notes and Exhibits

¹The e−Room Rates are a snapshot (real time estimate) of the monthly online room rate for the world's most popular destinations on the basis of millions of daily inquiries for hotel room rates to hundreds of online travel agents, hotel chains and websites of single properties.

²For each market, e-forecasting.com adjusts each e−Room Rate ® to seasonally adjusted and smoothed (SSA) hotel-biz-analytic, also called trend, using the BLS methodology comprised of two statistical approaches for seasonality: the model-based Signal Extraction in ARIMA Time Series (SEATS) or the non-model-based X-12 adjustment; and, the Henderson smoothing technique using the minimum mean square error revision for the end points.



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