Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles

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Ahead of the Curve: A Commonsense Guide to Forecasting Business and Market Cycles
by Joseph H. Ellis
from Harvard Business School Press

Customer Reviews:

• Avg. Customer Rating: 4.5 / 5.0

• Excellent Book on Consumer Retail Economics
  Very will written book on consumer retail economics.. I would recommend it if you are looking to forecast consumer behavior, as a PM or retail business owner

• You do not need a PhD
  To the reviewer who so proudly holds a PhD from MIT and who criticized the author for failing to provide the reader with a model that should unlock all forecasting mysteries. I would like to remind him that the author never claimed that's what he was trying to do with his book? Unless you were reading a different book?
  But for those interested in a fresh, exciting way to revisit past possible failures in forecasting, especially which variables used versus which ones we ought to look at, then this is a... more info

• The missing piece for people focused on Technical Analysis
  This is an excellent book on the economics that drive the stock market.
  This is not a casual read, this book is meant to be studied. Once you get the concepts in the book (real wages drives consumer spending, consumer spending drives the market) you have to download data from various Govt. web sites to keep your own data up to date. Ellis has a site for this book but the last time the charts were updates was on January 2008. You have to keep the data updated monthly.
  There was a big down turn in... more info

• Excellent non-technical primer of stock market behavior
  We all want to have as much data as possible when investing in the stock market, but we want to also spend our efforts efficiently. Joseph Ellis gives us an outstanding framework to understand how we can take common, public data and create ways to track the broad market.
  Ellis places a very high emphasis on consumer spending, which is not a surprise given that he was Goldman Sachs' lead retail analyst for many years. Without going into significant detail, Ellis shows how a single economic indicator -... more info

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