Market Report U.S.

US Hotel Industry Stalls

Hotel Industry Real-Time Indicator - HIP - Report on Current Business Activity

Business activity for US hoteliers held steady at previous month reading of 117.2 in July according to today's release of the Hotel Industry's Pulse (HIP) indicator.  e−forecasting.com's HIP - a predictive analytic which gauges monthly overall business conditions for hotels earlier than any industry indicator - stalled, posting a nil growth rate  in July after an increase of 0.1% in June.  The index is set to equal 100 in 2010. 

Graph - Probability of hotel industry entering a recessionHIP's six-month growth rate, which has historically confirmed the turning points in US hotel business activity, posted a positive rate of 0.6% in July, following a positive rate of 0.6% in June. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 2%, the same as the 40-year average annual growth rate of the industry's gross domestic product. 

The probability of the hotel industry being in recession, which is detected in real-time from HIP with the help of sophisticated statistical techniques, registered 40.3 % in July, up from 40.0% reported in June.  When this recession-warning gauge is near or passes the threshold probability of 50%, the US hotel industry has entered a recession. 

"Last month, the Department of Commerce revised national accounts components and aggregates since 2013, which reflect in the construction of HIP. The revised HIP continues to provide the same picture of a stalled industry as before the revisions. In the last 11 months, the growth rates in HIP posted zero or negative numbers in seven months and near zero growth rates of 0.1% in four months," said Maria Sogard, CEO of e­forecasting.com. "The probability of the industry in recession in the last six months hovers between 40-43%," Maria added. 

Two of the three demand and supply indicators of current business activity that make up Hotel Industry's Pulse (HIP) Index had a positive contribution to its change in July: Hotel Jobs and Total Spending on Hotels (includes non-room revenues).  The current business activity indicator which had a negative or zero contribution to HIP's change in July was Hotel Capacity.

Reflecting the current revisions, the six-month smoothed annualized growth of HIP has been declining from a high of 3.5% in April 2015 to 0.5% in the last three months. Historically more than 4-5 months of negative growth rates confirm a recession," said Evangelos Simos, professor at University of New Hampshire and editor for predictive analytics databases at e-forecasting.com. "With the new information we have so far, it seems we are at the doorsteps of the recession house," Simos added.

The latest HIP reading will be used to update e-forecasting.com’s total US Monthly Hotel Forecast as well as market level forecasts for the top 25 US  markets.  The firm also covers EMEA markets via a partnership with HotStats with hotel market profitability forecasts.  For more information on these forecasts which include two-year predictions of occupancy, ADR, RevPAR, online ADR, room profitability and predictive analytics for investing in hotel properties, email us at info@e–forecasting.com with subject: UShotelforecast. 

About e-forecasting.com 

e-forecasting.com, an international economic research and consulting firm, offers forecasts of the economic environment using proprietary, real-time economic indicators to produce customized solutions for what’s next. e−forecasting.com collaborates with domestic and international clients and publications to provide timely economic content for use as predictive intelligence to strengthen its clients’ competitive advantage.                      

The Hotel Industry Pulse, or U.S.-HIP for short, is a hotel industry indicator that was created to fill the void of a real-time monthly indicator for the hotel industry that captures current conditions. The indicator provides useful information about the timing and degree of the industry’s link with the US business cycle for the last four decades. Simply put, it tracks monthly overall business conditions in the industry, like an industry GDP, and points in a timely way to the changes in direction from growth to recession or vice versa. The composite indicator is made with the following components: revenues from consumers staying at hotels and motels adjusted for inflation, room occupancy rate and hotel employment, along with other key economic factors which influence hotel business activity. HIP indicators are also available for the United Kingdom and Germany.

The US hotel industry leading indicator, or U.S.-HIL for short, is a monthly leading indicator for the industry. Building off the tracking success of HIP, the real-time indicator for the U.S. hotel industry, U.S.-HIL was built as a composite indicator that uses nine different components that, on average, when put together have led the industry four to five months in advance of a change in direction in the industry business cycle. U.S.-HIL provides useful information about the future direction of the U.S. hotel industry. HIL indicators are also available for the United Kingdom and Germany.        



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